Answered Essay: 1.      The Curry In, Curry Out Indian Restaurant is trying to forecast sales for its weekday

1.      The Curry In, Curry Out Indian Restaurant is trying to forecast sales for its weekday lunch buffet. The actual number of guests purchasing the buffet for the last 5 weeks is shown below. Again, show all work and write your answer in the table below. (10 points)

a.      Calculate a seasonal factor for each day of the week. Round to 2 decimal points.

b.      The owner estimates that there will be 440 total guests in week 5. Forecast the number of customers for each day of week 6 using the Multiplicative Seasonal Forecast Model. Round to 1 decimal place.

c.       Suppose the regression forecast for daily demand fit to the data for the 25 days shown has a slope of 0.7 and an intercept of 71.9. Forecast the customers for each day of week 6 using the Seasonally Adjusted Trend Projection Model. Round to 1 decimal place.

Day Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 a. SI b. Forecast c. Forecast
Mon 55 54 60 62 62
Tue 68 67 76 75 74
Wed 85 95 90 95 93
Thu 81 82 79 80 96
Fri 96 105 99 97 102

Expert Answer

Answer

a. Seasonal Indices = Total Demand/ Total Day demand

b. Forecast = Total guests * corresponding seasonal index for each day

c. Forecast = (Slope* Day)+ Intercept, where day = 26,27,28,29,30 for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

Day Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Total a. SI b. Forecast c. Forecast
Mon 55 54 60 62 62 293 0.14 63.6 74.5
Tue 68 67 76 75 74 360 0.18 78.1 74.6
Wed 85 95 90 95 93 458 0.23 99.4 74.7
Thu 81 82 79 80 96 418 0.21 90.7 74.8
Fri 96 105 99 97 102 499 0.25 108.3 74.9
Total 2028
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