# Answered Essay: Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 92, 92, 93, 94, 95, 90, 93 (yesterday). a) The high temperature for

Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 92, 92, 93, 94, 95, 90, 93 (yesterday). a) The high temperature for today using a 3-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place). b) The high temperature for today using a 2-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place). c) The mean absolute deviation based on a 2-day moving average = degrees (round your response to one decimal place). d) The mean squared error for the 2-day moving average = degrees^2 (round your response to one decimal place). e) The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the 2-day moving average = % (round your response to one decimal place).

a. 3 day moving average = (95+90+93)/3 = 92.7

b. 2 day moving avergae = (90+93)/2 = 91.5

c. Mean absolute deviation (MAD) = average of absoulte deviation or absolute error. Please note that error = Y-F where y is the actual temperature and F is the forecasted temperature.

 Daily high temperatures (Y) 2 day moving average (F) Absulute error |Y-F| 92.00 92.00 93.00 92.00 1.00 94.00 92.50 1.50 95.00 93.50 1.50 90.00 94.50 4.50 93.00 92.50 0.50 MAD 1.80

MAD = average of (1,1.5,1.5,4.5,0.5) = 1.8

d. MSE = average of (Y-F)^2

 Daily high temperatures (Y) 2 day moving average (F) Y-F (Y-F)^2 92.00 92.00 93.00 92.00 1.00 1.00 94.00 92.50 1.50 2.25 95.00 93.50 1.50 2.25 90.00 94.50 -4.50 20.25 93.00 92.50 0.50 0.25 MSE 5.20

Thus MSE = 5.2 degrees 2

e. MAPE = 100/n*|Y-F/Y|

 Daily high temperatures (Y) 2 day moving average (F) |Y-F| |Y-F|/Y 92.00 92.00 93.00 92.00 1.00 0.01 94.00 92.50 1.50 0.02 95.00 93.50 1.50 0.02 90.00 94.50 4.50 0.05 93.00 92.50 0.50 0.01 Total 0.10

Thus MAPE = 0.10/5*100 = 2.0%

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