# Answered Essay: Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. Month Demand

Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months.

 Month Demand 1 751 2 656 3 717 4 633 5 705 6 714

The Period 4 forecast by using exponential smoothing with 0.25 alpha =  (in 2 decimal places)

 Month Demand Forecast 1 751 938.75 2 656 868.06 3 717 830.30 4 633 780.98 5 705 6 714

α= 0.25

The formula for the exponential smoothening is as below:-

Ft = Ft-1 +α(At-1-Ft-1)

In the question,

For 1st period:-

At-1=751

α=0.25

Ft = Ft-1 +α(At-1-Ft-1)= 751 + 0.25(751-0) =938.75

For 2nd period:-

Ft = Ft-1 +α(At-1-Ft-1)=938.75+0.25(656-938.75) =868.06

For 3rd period:-

Ft = Ft-1 +α(At-1-Ft-1)=868.06+0.25(717-868.06)= 830.30

For 4th period:-

Ft = Ft-1 +α(At-1-Ft-1)= 830.30+0.25(633-830.30)=780.98

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