Answered Essay: Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. The Period 4

QUESTION 4 Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. Month Demand 766 719 798 768 6 The Period 4 forecast by using exponential smoothing with 0.33 alpha (in 2 decimal places)

Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. The Period 4 forecast by using exponential smoothing with 0.33 alpha (in 2 decimal places)

Expert Answer

Forecast as per exponential smoothing:

This can be written as:

St+1=St+αϵt,

where ϵt is the forecast error (actual – forecast) for period t.

In other words, the new forecast is the old one plus an adjustment for the error that occurred in the last forecast.

Forecast for month 2 = Forecast for month 1 + (Actual of month 1 – Forecast of month 1) x a

Since forecast for month 1 is not given, we are taking actual of month 1 as the forecast for month 1

So, Forecast for month 1 = 766

Now, Forecast for month 2

= 766 + (766 – 766) x 0.33

= 766

Forecast for month 3

= 766 + (711 – 766) x 0.33

= 766 – 18.15

= 747.85

Forecast for month 4

= 747.85 + (806 – 747.85) x 0.33

= 747.85 + 19.19

= 767.04

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