# Answered Essay: Given the following information for period 15, what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16?

Given the following information for period 15, what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16?

Demand = 120

Forecast = 180

Alpha = 0.3

Choices are:

A. 77

B. 53

C. 17

D. 43

Correct answer is option B i.e 53

Actual demand for period 15 =120

Forecast demand for period 15 = 180

MAD for period 15 = 50

Alpha for period 15 = 0.3

Smoothed MAD for period 16 can be calculated as below:

(Alpha for period 15 X|Actual demand of 15-Forecast demand of 15| )+[(1-Alpha for period 15)XMAD for period 15]

=(0.3 X | 120 – 180 | ) + [(1 – 0.3) X 50]

=(0.3 X |-60|) + (0.7 X 50)

=(0.3 X 60) + (0.7 X 50)

= 18 + 35

=53

(Note: the “| |” Sign is for absolute value i.e a value not negative.That is why in this sollution |-60| becomes 60.Because the absolute value of -60 is 60

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