the expected time for each activity is as follows, it can be calculated by the formula= To+4Tm+Tp/ 6, where To is the optimistic time, Tm is the most likely time and Tp is the pessimist time.
A= 9+4*10+13)/6= 62/6= 10.33
B= 6+4*11+17)/6= 67/6= 11.1
C= 8+ 4*10+13)/6= 61/6= 10.1
D= 4+4*9+12)= 52/6= 8.66
variance of each activity can be calculated by= Tp-To)/6=
A= 13-9)/6= 4/6=0.66
B= 17-6/6=11/6= 1.833
C= 13-8)/6= 5/6= 0.833
D= 12-4)/6=8/6= 1.33
the critical path may be=
the critical path is A-C, with durations of 10.33+10.1= 20.4
the variance on critical path activities are= 0.66+0.833= 1.493
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