Answered Essay: Unit 5: Discussion No unread replies. No replies. The purpose of this discussion exercise is to provide you

Unit 5: Discussion

No unread replies. No replies.

The purpose of this discussion exercise is to provide you with a forum to discuss your newly discovered production and operations management concepts in light of current issues and real world situations. In essence, it is a practice ground for ensuring that your reasoning and foundation of these concepts are secure. This portion of the course requires you to interact with your fellow classmates and critique their submissions.

After completing the textbook assignments, lectures, and other materials above, select at least one of the unit concepts below. Then find a current event in an article at the online periodical listed to illustrate that concept. Compose an analysis of that event or situation using the unit operations concept that you selected. Review the grading rubric if necessary to understand how your postings are scored.

Unit Learning Outcome: 1,2,3,4,5

Directions:

The unit textbook concepts for our discussion for this unit are:

Application of the Just-in-Time philosophy in Operations

Example of continuous Improvement using JIT in Operations

Application of the “Pull System” in manufacturing operations

Application of quantitative forecasting in Operations

Application of causal forecasting in Operations

Measuring forecast accuracy in Operations.

Notice that all of these topics refer to the Operations function of a business, to manufacture a product or create a service. We all know that forecasting is used in all of the business functions, such as in marketing, sales, and finance, but for the discussion in this unit please focus on Operations examples and articles.

Select one of these concepts and find a current related article that describes it at Applied Forecasting: http://www.appliedforecasting.com/ , Manufacturing.net: www.manufacturing.net , Industry Unit: http://www.industryweek.com/ or the Wall Street Journal: www.wsj.com

You’ll find one (or several current articles) to analyze. Remember to focus upon your selected operations concept in your analysis.

Expert Answer

These methods construct a forecasting logic through a process of identifying the factors that

cause some effect on the forecast and building a functional form of the relationship between

the identified factors. In other words, a set of independent variables are identified and

associated with the dependent variable through a functional relationship. For example, let us

consider the demand in the country for a new product such as Direct to Home receivers

(DTH). Since this is a new product, we may not have adequate past data on the demand and

may need other means of establishing the potential demand. Even in the case of existing

product, the number of factors that influence demand may be several requiring us to

understand interaction among these,

Several factors – including exchange rate fluctuation,

installed capacity in the country, new product launches customers tariffs and price of raw

material at the international markets—influence the demand. Forecasting in these situations

uses casual methods.

In general, let us consider the forecast for a dependent variable Y using n independent

variables X1, X2, X3, … Xn. Then developing

a forecasting logic requires establishing a

establishing as follows:

Y= f(X1, X2, X3, … Xn)

Use of casual method to extract

the trend component in times series is a frequent application of casual method. Other casual methods include econometric models, multiple regression models and technological forecasting techniques.

Casual methods of forecasting require greater degree of mathematical treatment of data.

There are several computer packages such as SPSS available today to help the forecast design

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