Problem 1. stocking textbooks for INEN455 rne past, they have just ordered 50


Problem 1. stocking textbooks for INEN455 rne past, they have just ordered 50 textbooks. The data for sales of the textbook for the past semesters is listed in the table below. A graph of the sales data is also presented (Figure 1). The bookstore manager has decided to ask students from the IF forecasting techniques that will drive their future ordering decisions. The campus bookstore is trying to develop a better method for re manager has decided to ask students from the IE department to help them use Sales 20 25 30 10 15 40 30 Sales 20 10 Period Semester Fall 10 Spring 1l Fall 11 Spring 12 Series Linear (Series 1 ) Period (10 points) a) Which forecasting method(s) would you suggest based on the graph and why? b) Suppose that 2 period moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the (10 points) one-step ahead forecasts for periods 3 through 6 and place your response in column ofthe table below. Be sure to place your answer in the correct location in the table c Suppose that exponential smoothing was used to forecast sales. Determine the one- (20 points) step ahead forecasts for periods 2 through 6 using an alpha of 0.3. Place the result in the column (e) of the table below. Assume the forecast in period 1 is the same as the sales for period 1. Calculate the forecast error (absolute value of the error) for periods 3-5 for both the moving average and exponential smoothing forecasts and place the result in columns F and G, respectively. Using this information compute the MAD and MSE. What can you conclude about the two forecasting methods based on the MAD and MSE? d) (20 points)
media%2F88e%2F88ebc56d-2882-4c63-8769-17

Problem 1. stocking textbooks for INEN455 rne past, they have just ordered 50 textbooks. The data for sales of the textbook for the past semesters is listed in the table below. A graph of the sales data is also presented (Figure 1). The bookstore manager has decided to ask students from the IF forecasting techniques that will drive their future ordering decisions. The campus bookstore is trying to develop a better method for re manager has decided to ask students from the IE department to help them use Sales 20 25 30 10 15 40 30 Sales 20 10 Period Semester Fall 10 Spring 1l Fall 11 Spring 12 Series Linear (Series 1 ) Period (10 points) a) Which forecasting method(s) would you suggest based on the graph and why? b) Suppose that 2 period moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the (10 points) one-step ahead forecasts for periods 3 through 6 and place your response in column ofthe table below. Be sure to place your answer in the correct location in the table c Suppose that exponential smoothing was used to forecast sales. Determine the one- (20 points) step ahead forecasts for periods 2 through 6 using an alpha of 0.3. Place the result in the column (e) of the table below. Assume the forecast in period 1 is the same as the sales for period 1. Calculate the forecast error (absolute value of the error) for periods 3-5 for both the moving average and exponential smoothing forecasts and place the result in columns F and G, respectively. Using this information compute the MAD and MSE. What can you conclude about the two forecasting methods based on the MAD and MSE? d) (20 points)

Expert Answer

Answer

A.

As the trend is linear and decreasing either Moving average or exponential smoothening or smoothening with trend should be used.

B.

A B C D F
Period Sem Sales MA(2) Error MA(2) AD
1 Fall 10 20
2 Spring 11 25
3 Fall 11 30 22.5 7.5 7.5
4 Spring 12 10 27.5 -17.5 17.5
5 Fall 12 15 20 -5 5
6 Spring 13 12.5
10
MAD

C.

a = 0.3
Period Sem Sales Forecast Error ES AD SE
1 Fall 10 20 20.00
2 Spring 11 25 20.00
3 Fall 11 30 21.50 8.5 8.50 72.25
4 Spring 12 10 24.05 -14.05 14.05 197.40
5 Fall 12 15 19.84 -4.835 4.84 23.38
6 Spring 13 18.38
9.13 97.68
MAD MSE

D.

A B C D E F G
Period Sem Sales MA(2) ES Error MA(2) Error ES
1 Fall 10 20 20.00
2 Spring 11 25 20.00
3 Fall 11 30 22.5 21.50 7.5 8.5
4 Spring 12 10 27.5 24.05 -17.5 -14.05
5 Fall 12 15 20 19.84 -5 -4.835
6 Spring 13 12.5 18.38

So comparing:

A B C D F
Period Sem Sales MA(2) Error MA(2) AD SE
1 Fall 10 20
2 Spring 11 25
3 Fall 11 30 22.5 7.5 7.5 56.25
4 Spring 12 10 27.5 -17.5 17.5 306.25
5 Fall 12 15 20 -5 5 25.00
6 Spring 13 12.5
10 129.17
MAD MSE
a = 0.3
Period Sem Sales Forecast Error ES AD SE
1 Fall 10 20 20.00
2 Spring 11 25 20.00
3 Fall 11 30 21.50 8.5 8.50 72.25
4 Spring 12 10 24.05 -14.05 14.05 197.40
5 Fall 12 15 19.84 -4.835 4.84 23.38
6 Spring 13 18.38
9.13 97.68
MAD MSE

ES is the better ooption as MAD and MSE both are better.

Buy Essay
Calculate your paper price
Pages (550 words)
Approximate price: -

Help Me Write My Essay - Reasons:

Best Online Essay Writing Service

We strive to give our customers the best online essay writing experience. We Make sure essays are submitted on time and all the instructions are followed.

Our Writers are Experienced and Professional

Our essay writing service is founded on professional writers who are on stand by to help you any time.

Free Revision Fo all Essays

Sometimes you may require our writers to add on a point to make your essay as customised as possible, we will give you unlimited times to do this. And we will do it for free.

Timely Essay(s)

We understand the frustrations that comes with late essays and our writers are extra careful to not violate this term. Our support team is always engauging our writers to help you have your essay ahead of time.

Customised Essays &100% Confidential

Our Online writing Service has zero torelance for plagiarised papers. We have plagiarism checking tool that generate plagiarism reports just to make sure you are satisfied.

24/7 Customer Support

Our agents are ready to help you around the clock. Please feel free to reach out and enquire about anything.

Try it now!

Calculate the price of your order

Total price:
$0.00

How it works?

Follow these simple steps to get your paper done

Place your order

Fill in the order form and provide all details of your assignment.

Proceed with the payment

Choose the payment system that suits you most.

Receive the final file

Once your paper is ready, we will email it to you.

HOW OUR ONLINE ESSAY WRITING SERVICE WORKS

Let us write that nagging essay.

STEP 1

Submit Your Essay/Homework Instructions

By clicking on the "PLACE ORDER" button, tell us your requires. Be precise for an accurate customised essay. You may also upload any reading materials where applicable.

STEP 2

Pick A & Writer

Our ordering form will provide you with a list of writers and their feedbacks. At step 2, its time select a writer. Our online agents are on stand by to help you just in case.

STEP 3

Editing (OUR PART)

At this stage, our editor will go through your essay and make sure your writer did meet all the instructions.

STEP 4

Receive your Paper

After Editing, your paper will be sent to you via email.

× How can I help you?