# Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as follows:

Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as follows:

 Week Demand(\$) 1 108 2 116 3 118 4 124 5 96 6 119 7 96 8 102 9 112 10 102 11 92 12 91

Using the Hot Pizza weekly demand figures provided, estimate demand for Week 4 to Week 12 by using a 3-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.2. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? Include all calculations as well as your narrative explanation and summary.

Solution :

Consider the calculations for Error, Absolute Error, Squared Absolute Error, Percentage Error as per image below.

MAD = Average of Absolute Errors

MAPE = Average of Absolute Percentage Error

MSE = Average of Swuared Errors

Bias = Total Error / No. of periods

TS = Total Error / MAD

1. 3 Month Moving Average

MAD = 10.04. MAPE = 10%. MSE = 146.33. Bias = -5/9 = -0.56. TS = -5/10.04 = -0.49

2. Exponential Smoothing

MAD = 11.53. MAPE = 12%. MSE = 178.72. Bias = -8.69/9 = -0.96. TS = -8.69/11.53 = -0.75

As per MAD, MAPE, MSE, Bias, TS – 3 month moving average is better estimate of forecast.

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